In this article, we present SCROTUM.

Trump SCROTUM

SCROTUM (System to Calibrate Ruinous Outcomes from Trump’s Unethical Mismanagement) is a simple model to analyze a question that’s been on Americans’ minds a lot lately - just how bad is Trump? Is it time to move to Canada? (A: No. If it’s bad enough to move to Canada, you should probably move further away)

Many in the opposition struggle to manage their emotions because they foresee ruinous outcomes from Trump’s unethical mismanagement of our government; many Trump supporters brush aside these concerns claiming essentially that if Trump was so bad, it would’ve been worse last time.

Our SCROTUM framework seeks to dangle between these worldviews, penetrating this difficult subject with our rock-solid analysis.

The SCROTUM model

SCROTUM (System to Calibrate Ruinous Outcomes from Trump’s Unethical Mismanagement) is an abstract Bayesian model to reason about Trump’s objectives and the checks that are restraining him. A complete system of checks can render the nation effectively presidentless, while no checks renders it a dictatorship.

Scrotum Graphical Model

Figure 1 shows a Bayesian network illustrating an unsimplified SCROTUM model. Calibrated ruinous outcomes are caused by the interaction between DJT’s unencumbered outcome and the various encumbrances.

It’s clear to see from this model how one would make inferences and predictions. If an encumbrance is diminished, we would expect the calibrated outcomes to be more ruinous; if outcomes are not ruinous, it either means that the unencumbered outcome isn’t that bad, or that the encumbrances are robust.

The Unencumbered Outcome

DJT would bring about revolutionary changes in the USA if he wasn’t checked by other forces. What would the country look like after this revolution? This is called the Unencumbered Outcome in the SCROTUM model.

In this model, we mostly base our prior beliefs about the unencumbered outcome on Trump’s statements.

On immigration, based on his public statements, our research staff believes that an unencumbered DJT would deport over 10 million illegal immigrants during his second term.

On corruption and rule of law, based on his public statements, our research staff believes that DJT’s unencumbered objective would be to create an authoritarian kleptocracy with himself at the center.

Encumbrances

These are mechanisms that prevent DJT from obtaining the unencumbered outcome.

The main examples are: 1) People within the executive branch 2) The judicial branch 3) The legislative branch 4) The media 5) Public opinion 6) Physical, logistical, economic limitations 7) International forces

Applying the SCROTUM

There are two main ways to apply the SCROTUM - one is to produce predictions, and the other is to make inferences about the encumbrances and Trump’s unencumbered objectives.

Existing Data

There is some data available with which to make inferences.

Trump’s Unencumbered Outcome

Here are some notable examples of DJT’s behavior that inform the assessment that his unencumbered outcomes are authoritarian and xenophobic:

Here are some data points that could support the idea that Trump’s unencumbered outcomes are fairly standard by American presidential standards:

  • Real GDP rose steadily throughout his first term (except during the COVID pandemic)
  • Unemployment hit 50-year lows during the first Trump term
  • ISIS was defeated as a state with real territory during DJT’s first term

Encumbrances

Here’s a brief tabular accounting of the strength of various encumbrances during Trump’s first and second terms:

Encumbrance First Term Second Term
Employees within the executive branch 9/10 3/10
The judicial branch 7/10 7/10
The legislative branch 7/10 0/10
The media 8/10 6/10
Public opinion 8/10 4/10
Physical, logistical, economic limitations 7/10 7/10
International forces 1/10 2/10

The ratings are our estimates of the fraction of UO actions that these groups will let DJT implement without pushing back in a way that causes substantial delay or watering down.

Qualitative Examples

What is different this time?

Encumbrances from within the executive branch and the legislative branch are greatly diminished in Trump’s second term compared to his first term.

Compared to his first term, Trump’s behavior has been normalized and so his behavior has less shock value to his base.

Facts of economics are constraining Trump, as his tariffs were met with immediate financial pushback, which forces him to TACO.

The judicial branch remains a significant check on Trump in his second term, with a number of judges who he appointed ruling against his executive actions.

What are we learning about DJT’s Unencumbered Outcome?

He has shown more clear willingness to violate the law repeatedly and brazenly. He has shown an increased interest in targeting his political opponents economically and with law enforcement. He is clearly setting the stage for more violence against immigrants and his political enemies.

Conclusion

Checks on Trump’s power have been diminished but are continuing to significantly impede his agenda in his second term. DJT / circumstances have effectively reduced the rate at which his intentions will be thwarted from 47/70 to 29/70.

Legal action to retain executive branch workforce and the midterm elections are the largest opportunities for the opposition to regain constraining strength.

References

[1] “Veto Players: How Political Institutions Work” [2] “Donald Trump and the Collapse of Checks and Balances” David M. Driesen https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1066&context=smulrforum